The fifth edition of Perspectives presents four priorities for investors that will prevail over the coming year:
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We challenge views that China is facing a “hard landing”. Chinese authorities are willing to use all available policy measures, and there are signs that the announcement of the Five-Year Plan, in tandem with fiscal and monetary policy, are already having a positive impact.
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Inflation-linked bonds.
With inflation expectations so low, it may seem a leap of faith for many investors to recalibrate their bond positions in favour of inflation-linked instruments. However, we believe those who do are likely to be rewarded for doing so.
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Rising debt levels and changes in the credit market environment are leading some investors to question the sustainability of returns from this asset class. We see no immediate prospect of a credit crisis, but credit investors need to be highly selective.
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Commodities.
The key drivers behind the current oil/commodity weakness have been a shift in the commodity supply cycle and subdued global growth. We expect both driving forces to reverse slowly next year.