Although the current legislature was scheduled to run until December 2018, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has decided to dissolve the lower house of parliament and convene early elections on 22 October 2017. This is not an isolated case however, as several heads of government have also decided to shorten the legislature in the past in order to capitalise on a more favourable situation.

Shinzo Abe’s decision appears to be inspired by the same logic. Just a few months ago, the Prime Minister was embroiled in a scandal which was affecting his popularity and that of his government. However, the Prime Minister’s firm reaction during the summer to the rising tensions with North Korea, both at home and in the words he addressed to the UN, led to a significant improvement in the opinion polls, with positive sentiment increased further by a minor ministerial reshuffle at the beginning of August.

Encouraged by the improved polls and the lack of cohesion among the opposition parties, on 25 September Shinzo Abe announced a snap election. The announcement led to a rapid shift in the political landscape. On the same day, Tokyo city governor Yuriko Koike, who secured power in 2016 by defeating the candidate from the majority Liberal Democratic Party(LDP), also launched a new party called the Party of Hope. These announcements placed the Democratic Party (DP), the leading opposition party with 73 of the 475 parliamentary seats, in a complicated situation, as some of its members have joined the Party of Hope or are in the process of doing so, along with members of some other parties. On 2 October, the DP vice-president Yukio Edano announced the launch of another new party called The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

These changes in the ranks of the opposition should enable the LDP, which has governed Japan almost exclusively since 1955 and alongside its ally the Komeito party since 2000, to retain a majority. Yuriko Koike’s new Party of Hope may create a surprise however or at least dilute the LDP’s current landslide majority representing more than 2/3 of the lower house.

Although it is unlikely that the Party of Hope will prevent an LDP victory, its opposition in the short term to a planned VAT rate hike has nonetheless succeeded in shifting the Prime Minister’s position regarding the use of the funds resulting from the increase from 8% to 10% scheduled for October 2019. At the campaign launch, Shinzo Abe announced that a greater proportion of the fresh VAT income will be allocated to aid for young children and free school fees for underprivileged families than was initially earmarked, therefore leaving less for reimbursing debt, which remains above 200% of GDP.

Although this change in tack may be part of the structural measures suggested under Abenomics to enable more women to return to the jobs market, the level of debt will keep the ratings agencies on alert for several more years yet.

Lastly, with regard to these recent developments, the incumbent majority should be re-elected which would enable Shinzo Abe to pursue the structural reforms which have been underway for the past four years.